Abdul Rahman Baba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abdul Rahman Baba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €710k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1375 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1461
- Opponent strength
- 1291
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €448k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+83 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -78% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1375 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | LB | 19 | 1375 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1291 | 1461 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | LB | 23 | 1655 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 1264 | 1378 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | LB | 19 | 1569 | 67% | 4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 1281 | 1535 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | LB | 4 | 217 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 1278 | 1428 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | LB | 2 | 109 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1573 | 1415 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | LB | 11 | 965 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 1474 | 1421 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LM | 2 | 163 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1451 | 1482 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 1 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1482 | 1618 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 13 | 707 | 23% | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1531 | 1556 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 15 | 1016 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1497 | 1625 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LB | 31 | 2669 | 87% | 0 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1531 | 1493 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Bundesliga | LB | 20 | 1629 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1448 | 1360 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 10 | 833 | 1 | 1 | 1502 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 8 | 665 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ghana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 10 | 834 | 1 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 390 | 1 | 1 | 1360 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 166 | 1 | 0 | 1271 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Reading FC | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1485 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 439 | 1 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1573 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serdar Aziz Super Lig · 2022 | 32 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 33 | €2.8M | €500k | fell |
| Manuel da Costa Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €1.3M | €850k | fell |
| Filip Mladenovic Super League 1 · 2024 | 33 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Fernando Varela Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €1.2M | €200k | fell |
| Lucas Lima Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Eli Dasa Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Gordon Schildenfeld Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2023 | Chelsea | PAOK | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 May 2023 | Reading | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Chelsea | Reading | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 31 May 2022 | Reading | Chelsea | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Chelsea | Reading | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | PAOK | Chelsea | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jan 2021 | Chelsea | PAOK | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | RCD Mallorca | Chelsea | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Chelsea | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Stade Reims | Chelsea | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Chelsea | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 28 Jan 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | Chelsea | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 29 Jan 2018 | Chelsea | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | FC Schalke 04 | Chelsea | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 2 Aug 2016 | Chelsea | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 16 Aug 2015 | Augsburg | Chelsea | €26.0M | €10.0M |
| 12 Aug 2014 | Greuther Fürth | Augsburg | €2.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Dreams FC | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Asante Kotoko | Dreams FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Dreams FC | Asante Kotoko | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.