
Ivo Grbic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivo Grbic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €304k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €327k – €963k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -58% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1271 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | GK | 22 | 1980 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1273 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Sheffield United | Premier League | GK | 9 | 772 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1592 | 1269 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 12 | 921 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1463 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | GK | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1427 | 1540 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Volynets Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €375k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kyriakidis Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €750k | €450k | fell |
| Erce Kardeşler Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €425k | €425k | flat |
| Gökhan Akkan Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
| Ögmundur Kristinsson Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Olivier Werner Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Karagümrük | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Sheff Utd | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | C. Rizespor | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 9 Sept 2024 | Sheff Utd | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Atlético | Sheff Utd | €2.5M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Lille | Atlético | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Atlético | Lille | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 20 Aug 2020 | NK Lokomotiva | Atlético | €3.5M | €2.0M |
| 13 Jul 2018 | Hajduk Split | NK Lokomotiva | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Dec 2014 | Hajduk Split II | Hajduk Split | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2014 | Hajduk U19 | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hajduk U17 | Hajduk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Hajduk Yth. | Hajduk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.