Ivo Grbic

30 yrs · Goalkeeper · Croatia
Fatih Karagümrük · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 195 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€228k – €790k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€444k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€327k – €963k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€345k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€228k – €790k
Model value (performance-implied)€444k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€327k – €963k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ivo Grbic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 80

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage42.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €304k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2880 (94% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
43 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1169
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€327k – €963k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -58% to -16%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigGK32288094%000.000.00127111690.40
2024/25Caykur RizesporSuper LigGK22198061%000.000.00127312280.39
2023/24Sheffield UnitedPremier LeagueGK977223%000.000.00159212691.14
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaGK1292127%000.000.00146316560.98
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1GK21189055%000.000.00142715400.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Fa CupSheffield United19000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid190001578
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille6540001636
2020/21Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yevgen Volynets
Premier Liga · 2023
30€700k€600kflat
Andreas Gianniotis
Super League 1 · 2023
31€600k€375kfell
Dimitrios Kyriakidis
Super League 1 · 2017
31€750k€450kfell
Erce Kardeşler
Super Lig · 2024
30€425k€425kflat
Gökhan Akkan
Super Lig · 2024
29€1.6M€400kfell
Ögmundur Kristinsson
Super League 1 · 2019
30€600k€500kflat
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Super Lig · 2021
32€900k€400kfell
Olivier Werner
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€700k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026KaragümrükSheff UtdFree / loan€1.0M
6 Aug 2025Sheff UtdKaragümrükFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2025C. RizesporSheff UtdFree / loan€1.8M
9 Sept 2024Sheff UtdC. RizesporFree / loan€3.5M
26 Jan 2024AtléticoSheff Utd€2.5M€3.5M
30 Jun 2022LilleAtléticoFree / loan€3.5M
19 Aug 2021AtléticoLilleFree / loan€3.5M
20 Aug 2020NK LokomotivaAtlético€3.5M€2.0M
13 Jul 2018Hajduk SplitNK LokomotivaFree / loan€150k
1 Dec 2014Hajduk Split IIHajduk SplitUnknownData unavailable
14 Jul 2014Hajduk U19Hajduk Split IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Hajduk U17Hajduk U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Hajduk Yth.Hajduk U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ivo Grbic · MoneyballAI