Stefan Velkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stefan Velkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €218k vs market €650k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1799 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €379k – €608k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 419% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -44% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1799 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1799 | 91% | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1264 | 1098 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 13 | 1138 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1357 | 1083 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 16 | 1120 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1279 | 1174 | 0.48 |
| 2019/20 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 3 | 270 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1337 | 1174 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 3 | 194 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Den Bosch | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Cornelis Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 32 | €650k | €200k | fell |
| Paul McGinn Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 29 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Bart Buysse Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Benaissa Benamar Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Christian Kum Eredivisie · 2017 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Erik Marxen Superliga · 2019 | 29 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Trent Sainsbury Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Jorge Casado Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | MSV Duisburg | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Jan 2021 | KFC Uerdingen | MSV Duisburg | Free / loan | €250k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | FC Den Bosch | KFC Uerdingen | Free / loan | €325k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | RKC Waalwijk | FC Den Bosch | Free / loan | €325k |
| 17 Jan 2020 | FC Den Bosch | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €400k |
| 10 Aug 2018 | Slavia Sofia | FC Den Bosch | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Slavia U18 | Slavia Sofia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.