Thilo Kehrer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thilo Kehrer's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-18.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-12.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-7.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2358 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €7.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 82% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -62% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2358 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1462 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2384 | 78% | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1433 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 15 | 1324 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1470 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 4 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1625 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2230 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1584 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 1506 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1392 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1610 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1407 | 1727 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 7 | 479 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1429 | 1779 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 1895 | 55% | 1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1447 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2364 | 77% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1506 | 1618 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1078 | 35% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1498 | 1556 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1622 | 1543 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 688 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 10 | 855 | 1 | 1 | 1650 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 5 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | West Ham United | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1294 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 375 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 489 | 0 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 396 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 502 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Medel Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €12.0M | €3.8M | fell |
| Milan Bisevac Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Lombaerts Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Miranda Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Adam Marusic Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jaume Costa Laliga · 2018 | 30 | €9.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Jonathan Gradit Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €4.5M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | West Ham | Monaco | €11.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Monaco | West Ham | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Jan 2024 | West Ham | Monaco | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 17 Aug 2022 | PSG | West Ham | €12.0M | €22.0M |
| 16 Aug 2018 | FC Schalke 04 | PSG | €37.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Schalke 04 U19 | FC Schalke 04 | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Schalke 04 U17 | Schalke 04 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Stuttgart U17 | Schalke 04 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stuttgart Yth. | Stuttgart U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Reutlingen Yth. | Stuttgart Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Tübingen Yth. | Reutlingen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.