Rui Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rui Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-19.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1301
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+72 Elo); league level down (-49 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -61% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1301 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1329 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 15 | 1350 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1505 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 28 | 2475 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1530 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 22 | 1963 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1588 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1564 | 1466 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1547 | 1512 | 1.16 |
| 2016/17 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1172 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | GK | 22 | 1916 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1405 | 1306 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | GK | 9 | 810 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1449 | 1394 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1322 | 1438 | 0.74 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 11 | 1020 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1284 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 588 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Granada CF | 11 | 990 | 0 | 1 | 1569 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Granada CF | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1413 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Marchesín Liga Portugal · 2020 | 32 | €6.8M | €4.0M | fell |
| Simon Mignolet Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 32 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Walter Benítez Eredivisie · 2024 | 31 | €13.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Andriy Pyatov Premier Liga · 2018 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Fabri Super Lig · 2018 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Matheus Liga Portugal · 2023 | 31 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marco Bizot Eredivisie · 2021 | 30 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fernando Muslera Super Lig · 2018 | 32 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Real Betis | Sporting | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sporting | Real Betis | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Real Betis | Sporting | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Granada CF | Real Betis | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 27 Jan 2017 | Nacional | Granada CF | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Nacional U19 | Nacional | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Maia Lid. U19 | Nacional U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Maia Lid. U17 | Maia Lid. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Maia Sub-15 | Maia Lid. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | FC Maia Youth | Maia Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.