Ederson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ederson's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-10.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-11.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2132 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1266
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-272 Elo); league level down (-321 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -60% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 24 | 2132 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1266 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 26 | 2321 | 68% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 1547 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 33 | 2788 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1544 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1539 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1547 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3072 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1560 | 1848 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1526 | 1924 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1528 | 1831 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 27 | 2382 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1348 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 10 | 891 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1358 | 1712 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1413 | 1324 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 18 | 1595 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1479 | 1363 | 0.74 |
| 2012/13 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1328 | 1451 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1497 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1710 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 660 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 1003 | 0 | 0 | 1698 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 900 | 0 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1794 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Rio Ave FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Ryan Eredivisie · 2024 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Fernando Muslera Super Lig · 2021 | 35 | €4.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Andriy Pyatov Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Roberto Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Silvio Proto Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Georgiy Bushchan Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Dominik Livakovic Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Georgios Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2025 | Man City | Fenerbahçe | €11.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica | Man City | €40.0M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rio Ave | Benfica | €500k | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | GD Ribeirão | Rio Ave | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica U19 | GD Ribeirão | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | São Paulo U17 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.