Bernardo Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bernardo Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 25.4M-47.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-22.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (2888 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €15.8M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -75% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2888 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1594
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -67% to -60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 38 | 2888 | 84% | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1594 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 33 | 2668 | 78% | 4 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 1561 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 33 | 2582 | 75% | 6 | 9 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 1576 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 34 | 2202 | 64% | 4 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1553 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 35 | 2860 | 84% | 8 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 1562 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 26 | 2070 | 61% | 2 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 1543 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 34 | 2029 | 59% | 6 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.27 | 1568 | 1848 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 36 | 2853 | 83% | 7 | 8 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 1541 | 1924 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 35 | 1520 | 44% | 6 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 1506 | 1831 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RM | 37 | 2800 | 82% | 8 | 11 | 0.61 | 0.28 | 1425 | 1727 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 2238 | 65% | 7 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1427 | 1522 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 2286 | 67% | 9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 1419 | 1613 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | SS | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1636 | 1761 | 0.74 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 551 | 1 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 766 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 426 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 535 | 2 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 437 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 13 | 908 | 3 | 1 | 1715 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 880 | 3 | 3 | 1709 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 192 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 13 | 930 | 1 | 2 | 1643 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 220 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 435 | 0 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 283 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1928 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 578 | 4 | 2 | 1606 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 360 | 2 | 3 | — |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1667 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 563 | 1 | 2 | 1618 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 190 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 11 | 921 | 2 | 1 | 1690 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 481 | 0 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1707 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 7 | 197 | 0 | 1 | 1750 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georginio Wijnaldum Premier League · 2021 | 31 | €30.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Gabi Laliga · 2016 | 33 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Nemanja Matić Premier League · 2018 | 30 | €40.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Fabinho Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €42.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ivan Rakitic Laliga · 2018 | 30 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Granit Xhaka Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Sergio Busquets Laliga · 2019 | 31 | €50.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Thomas Partey Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €35.0M | €14.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Man City | Without Club | Unknown | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Monaco | Man City | €50.0M | €40.0M |
| 20 Jan 2015 | Benfica | Monaco | €15.8M | €3.5M |
| 19 Jan 2015 | Monaco | Benfica | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 7 Aug 2014 | Benfica | Monaco | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.