
Manolis Saliakas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Manolis Saliakas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.95x the positional average in the league (1110 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1110 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €683k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 40 pts; relative output up 102% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -77% to -65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1110 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | RM | 17 | 1110 | 36% | 1 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 1503 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | RM | 30 | 2324 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1511 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | RB | 26 | 2318 | 99% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1260 | 1248 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | RB | 24 | 1837 | 79% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1294 | 1197 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | PAS Lamia 1964 | Super League 1 | RB | 19 | 699 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1324 | 1208 | 0.46 |
| 2013/14 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1291 | 1595 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Lamia 1964 | 5 | 443 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | PGS Kissamikos | 5 | 354 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Tardieu Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Didier Digard Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Randall Azofeifa Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €2.5M | €450k | fell |
| Lewis Holtby Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Vladislav Kulik Premier Liga · 2016 | 31 | €1.8M | €150k | fell |
| Lucas Deaux Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Davide Faraoni Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Miguel Veloso Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | PAS Giannina | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | PAS Lamia | PAS Giannina | Unknown | €300k |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Olympiacos | PAS Lamia | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | AOX Kissamikos | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €350k |
| 27 Aug 2017 | Olympiacos | AOX Kissamikos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Karmiotissa | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 Aug 2016 | Olympiacos | Karmiotissa | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Olympiacos U20 | Olympiacos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | GS Ergotelis U20 | Olympiacos U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.