Manolis Saliakas

30 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Greece
FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€556k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€996k – €3.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€683k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €3.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€556k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€996k – €3.9M
Projected value (24 months)€683k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Manolis Saliakas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.95x the positional average in the league (1110 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 35

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average55.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1110 (36% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.41
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.43
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1283
Opponent strength
1503
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€683k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 40 pts; relative output up 102% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -77% to -65%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1110 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC St. PauliBundesligaRM17111036%140.410.43150312830.94
2024/25FC St. PauliBundesligaRM30232476%220.150.22151113300.94
2021/22PAS GianninaSuper League 1RB26231899%120.120.15126012480.39
2020/21PAS GianninaSuper League 1RB24183779%010.050.11129411970.39
2019/20PAS Lamia 1964Super League 1RB1969930%100.130.19132412080.46
2013/14Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RM1903%000.000.13129115950.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalFC St. Pauli315900—
2024/25Dfb PokalFC St. Pauli18700—
2021/22Kypello ElladasPAS Giannina112000—
2020/21Kypello ElladasPAS Giannina545010—
2019/20Kypello ElladasPAS Lamia 1964544310—
2018/19Kypello ElladasPGS Kissamikos535401—
2015/16Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios315300—
2014/15Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios12200—
2013/14Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios14500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Florian Tardieu
Ligue 1 · 2023
31€2.0M€600kfell
Didier Digard
Ligue 1 · 2015
29€3.0M€800kfell
Randall Azofeifa
Super Lig · 2014
30€2.5M€450kfell
Lewis Holtby
Bundesliga · 2018
28€2.5M€800kfell
Vladislav Kulik
Premier Liga · 2016
31€1.8M€150kfell
Lucas Deaux
Ligue 1 · 2019
31€2.5M€1.2Mfell
Davide Faraoni
Serie A · 2023
32€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Miguel Veloso
Serie A · 2017
31€4.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022PAS GianninaSt. PauliFree / loan€1.0M
3 Aug 2020PAS LamiaPAS GianninaUnknown€300k
12 Jul 2019OlympiacosPAS LamiaFree / loan€350k
30 Jun 2019AOX KissamikosOlympiacosFree / loan€350k
27 Aug 2017OlympiacosAOX KissamikosFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2017KarmiotissaOlympiacosFree / loan€250k
10 Aug 2016OlympiacosKarmiotissaFree / loan€250k
1 Jan 2014Olympiacos U20OlympiacosUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013GS Ergotelis U20Olympiacos U20Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.