Jan Bednarek

The model rates Jan Bednarek's performance-implied value at EUR 4.4M-18.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-11.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-8.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2680 (88% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.07

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.04

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1594

Opponent strength

1316

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€3.9M – €8.0M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+318 Elo); league level down (-238 Elo); relative output down 64% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -51% to -33%).

• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

66 (DEF)

Relative output kept

57%–168%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

76%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.