Diego Llorente
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Llorente's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1227 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €910k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -80% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1227 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1227 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1467 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2521 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1516 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2246 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1492 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 8 | 648 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1539 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 9 | 574 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1449 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 28 | 2343 | 69% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1532 | 1477 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 15 | 1205 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1603 | 1573 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1465 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2328 | 68% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1552 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1752 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1568 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 27 | 2328 | 68% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1539 | 1535 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Málaga CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2029 | 59% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1554 | 1516 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2876 | 84% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1566 | 1468 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 1 | 17 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1396 | 1859 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1423 | 1773 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 627 | 0 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 338 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1287 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 656 | 0 | 1 | 1558 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 495 | 3 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Málaga CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 324 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Serie A · 2015 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| José Luis Palomino Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
| David Abraham Bundesliga · 2019 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Milan Bisevac Ligue 1 · 2015 | 32 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Federico Fazio Serie A · 2020 | 33 | €3.2M | €600k | fell |
| François Clerc Ligue 1 · 2015 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Maicon Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Leandro Fernández Premier Liga · 2014 | 31 | €5.0M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Leeds | Real Betis | €3.3M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Roma | Leeds | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Leeds | Roma | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 24 Sept 2020 | Real Sociedad | Leeds | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | €11.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Málaga CF | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 6 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid | Málaga CF | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 13 Jul 2015 | RM Castilla | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Madrid C | RM Castilla | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Real Madrid U19 | Real Madrid C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.