Kenneth Paal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kenneth Paal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2882 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €691k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -40% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 34 | 2882 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1276 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LM | 25 | 1639 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 1405 | 1226 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 2272 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1374 | 1271 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LB | 19 | 1660 | 71% | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 1373 | 1272 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LB | 29 | 2535 | 83% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1359 | 1271 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 5 | 418 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1257 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praxitelis Vouros Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Sam Adekugbe Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Tobias Salquist Superliga · 2022 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Alin Toșca Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €2.0M | €850k | fell |
| Jordens Peters Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €1.3M | €750k | fell |
| Damian van Bruggen Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Mykhaylo Shershen Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Stuart Findlay Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €600k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | QPR | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PEC Zwolle | QPR | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PSV | PEC Zwolle | €350k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | PEC Zwolle | PSV | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSV U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | NEC Youth | PSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | ESA Youth | NEC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.