Vasilios Barkas

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Greece
FC Utrecht · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 196 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€650k – €3.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€700k – €3.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€893k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.6M – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€650k – €3.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€700k – €3.0M
Projected value (24 months)€893k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vasilios Barkas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 14

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average57.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.7M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-60% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2925 (96% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
57 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1352
Opponent strength
1299
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€893k – €1.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -78% to -45%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
217 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–152%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC UtrechtEredivisieGK33292596%000.000.00129913520.43
2024/25FC UtrechtEredivisieGK31279091%000.000.00130214090.50
2023/24FC UtrechtEredivisieGK29261085%000.000.00135113540.48
2022/23FC UtrechtEredivisieGK32288094%000.000.00135213920.58
2021/22Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK1903%000.000.00122415750.50
2020/21Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK13117039%000.000.00131415340.54
2019/20Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1GK20179277%000.000.00129814510.46
2018/19Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1GK26234087%000.000.00129214420.43
2017/18Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1GK545017%000.000.00129515170.48
2016/17Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1GK20180067%000.000.00129813950.44
2015/16APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1GK12108040%000.000.00131213380.46

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Utrecht6540001342
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Utrecht6516001488
2025/26Knvb BekerFC Utrecht19000—
2024/25Knvb BekerFC Utrecht19000—
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Utrecht439000—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC190001434
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC2180001320
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC2180001638
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingCeltic FC2180001322
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos4360001431
2019/20Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos112000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos6540001711
2018/19Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos545000—
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos4360001505
2017/18Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos872000—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos2180001539
2016/17Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos19000—
2015/16Kypello ElladasAPS Atromitos Athinon872000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mamadou Samassa
Super Lig · 2020
30€2.4M€275kfell
Yuriy Dyupin
Premier Liga · 2021
33€3.0M€600kfell
Nick Olij
Eredivisie · 2024
29€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Eiji Kawashima
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
31€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Mert Günok
Super Lig · 2020
31€4.0M€900kfell
Günay Güvenç
Super Lig · 2022
31€2.5M€600kfell
Ibrahim Sehic
Super Lig · 2022
34€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Sammy Bossut
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
29€2.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Jul 2023CelticUtrechtFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2023UtrechtCelticFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2022CelticUtrechtFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jul 2020AEK AthensCeltic€5.0M€2.4M
1 Jul 2016AtromitosAEK Athens€600k€600k
29 Jan 2013Atromitos U20AtromitosUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Vasilios Barkas · MoneyballAI