Sergio Herrera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergio Herrera's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 84.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3285 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €846k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -77% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3285 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1478 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1514 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 32 | 2870 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1475 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1540 | 1455 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1446 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 33 | 2957 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1571 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | GK | 19 | 1655 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1554 | 1478 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 7 | 750 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Nicolas Penneteau Ligue 1 · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Oliver Baumann Bundesliga · 2023 | 33 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Fernando Martínez Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Lukasz Skorupski Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rune Jarstein Bundesliga · 2018 | 34 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jean-François Gillet Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Marco Silvestri Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €5.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2017 | SD Huesca | CA Osasuna | €300k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SD Amorebieta | SD Huesca | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2015 | Alavés B | SD Amorebieta | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | CD Laudio | Alavés B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Jul 2013 | Alavés B | CD Laudio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Alavés U19 | Alavés B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.