Oliver Baumann
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Baumann's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 83.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €911k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength up (+93 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -76% to -62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1488 | 1508 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1521 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1533 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1532 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1539 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1533 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1506 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1507 | 1579 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1532 | 1592 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1525 | 1428 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1535 | 1456 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1559 | 1454 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1448 | 1547 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 259 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Consigli Serie A · 2021 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Steve Mandanda Ligue 1 · 2020 | 35 | €2.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergey Ryzhikov Premier Liga · 2015 | 35 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Kasper Schmeichel Ligue 1 · 2023 | 37 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mickaël Landreau Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2024 | 34 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Rune Jarstein Bundesliga · 2019 | 35 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Stipe Pletikosa Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2014 | Freiburg | Hoffenheim | €5.5M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | SC Freiburg U19 | Freiburg | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Freiburg Yth. | SC Freiburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2000 | Krozingen Yth. | Freiburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.