Arno Verschueren
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arno Verschueren's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (559 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 33.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €397k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 559 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1253
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €336k – €628k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; changed club; team strength up (+84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -46% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 559 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 559 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 1253 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 20 | 1666 | 54% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 1288 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | AM | 14 | 348 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1302 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 27 | 2370 | 77% | 9 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 1360 | 1327 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 31 | 2457 | 80% | 9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 1343 | 1394 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 12 | 968 | 32% | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 1365 | 1295 | 0.60 |
| 2018/19 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | DM | 18 | 1297 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1347 | 1177 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | DM | 26 | 2177 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1351 | 1253 | 0.59 |
| 2015/16 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 4 | 131 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1478 | 1251 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 5 | 70 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1418 | 1257 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 147 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 93 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Lawson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 30 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Theodoros Vasilakakis Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Sacha Kljestan Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Bennard Kumordzi Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| David Pavelka Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| João Carvalho Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €1.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Azer Busuladzic Super League 1 · 2020 | 29 | €650k | €300k | fell |
| Gary Miller Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €350k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | Sparta R. | FC Twente | €450k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lommel SK | Sparta R. | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Sparta R. | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €600k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Lommel SK | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €600k |
| 16 Jul 2020 | NAC Breda | Lommel SK | €250k | €900k |
| 15 Aug 2016 | KVC Westerlo | NAC Breda | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | OH Leuven U19 | KVC Westerlo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | OH Leuven U17 | OH Leuven U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Westerlo Yth. | OH Leuven U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Lierse SK Yth. | Westerlo Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.