Finn Dahmen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Finn Dahmen's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-9.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-12.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-12.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €6.4M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €12.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 44 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -69% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1492 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1507 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1522 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1756 | 1481 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Schwäbe Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Adrián San Miguel Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alessio Cragno Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €20.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Koen Casteels Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €10.5M | rose |
| Fernando Pacheco Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| David Soria Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Fraser Forster Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Mainz | Augsburg | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Mainz | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mainz 05 U19 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Frankfurt Yth. | Mainz 05 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Bierstadt Jgd. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.