Philipp Köhn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Philipp Köhn's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1619 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1427
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -63% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1619 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 19 | 1619 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1427 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1435 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 22 | 1980 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1573 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivo Grbic Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Maarten Stekelenburg Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €5.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Dario Kresic Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Cristian Álvarez Laliga · 2013 | 28 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Kasper Schmeichel Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €4.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Iván Villar Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Marwin Hitz Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | Monaco | €8.0M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Wil 1900 | Salzburg | Free / loan | €400k |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Salzburg | FC Wil 1900 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 6 Jul 2018 | Leipzig | Salzburg | €900k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Stuttgart U19 | Leipzig | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Stuttgart U17 | Stuttgart U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Stuttgart Yth. | Stuttgart U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Schalke 04 Yth. | Stuttgart Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Duisburg Yth. | Schalke 04 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Dinslaken Yth. | Duisburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.