Niclas Eliasson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niclas Eliasson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (743 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 50.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 743 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1138
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €640k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+61 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); role change RW -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -71% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 743 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | RM | 17 | 743 | 32% | 0 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 1138 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | RW | 15 | 807 | 34% | 3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 1231 | 1450 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | RM | 26 | 1760 | 75% | 5 | 7 | 0.61 | 0.22 | 1238 | 1472 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | RM | 16 | 710 | 30% | 0 | 6 | 0.76 | 0.30 | 1241 | 1424 | 0.37 |
| 2020/21 | Nîmes Olympique | Ligue 1 | LM | 30 | 1806 | 53% | 4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1453 | 1306 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 98 | 1 | 1 | 1465 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 1364 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 164 | 0 | 2 | 1533 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 123 | 0 | 1 | 1576 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 264 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar El Kaddouri Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Chiquinho Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ján Gregus Superliga · 2019 | 28 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Delvin N'Dinga Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lukas Lerager Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ilsinho Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Tayfur Bingöl Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| Éder Balanta Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2022 | Nîmes Olympique | AEK Athens | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Bristol City | Nîmes Olympique | €3.0M | €4.0M |
| 8 Aug 2017 | Norrköping | Bristol City | €2.0M | €800k |
| 8 Jan 2017 | AIK | Norrköping | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Nov 2016 | Norrköping | AIK | Free / loan | €150k |
| 28 Jul 2016 | AIK | Norrköping | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Jan 2014 | Falkenbergs FF | AIK | Unknown | €200k |
| 8 Jan 2013 | Falkenberg U19 | Falkenbergs FF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.