Pablo Maffeo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Maffeo's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-9.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2672 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -28% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 31 | 2672 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1474 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 30 | 2375 | 69% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1487 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 22 | 1455 | 43% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1494 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2976 | 87% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1514 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2952 | 86% | 1 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 1533 | 1378 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SD Huesca | Laliga | RM | 25 | 1978 | 58% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1574 | 1418 | 1.10 |
| 2018/19 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RB | 8 | 601 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1565 | 1402 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Girona FC | Laliga | RM | 33 | 2636 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 1554 | 1459 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 75 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Brosinski Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Juan Valera Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rúben Vezo Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Enzo Roco Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Pedro Geromel Laliga · 2013 | 28 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Henri Bedimo Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Dimitri Foulquier Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marcin Komorowski Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Stuttgart | RCD Mallorca | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | RCD Mallorca | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 7 Jul 2021 | Stuttgart | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SD Huesca | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 8 Sept 2020 | Stuttgart | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 24 Aug 2020 | Girona | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stuttgart | Girona | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man City | Stuttgart | €9.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City U23 | Man City | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Girona | Man City U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 13 Jan 2016 | Man City U21 | Girona | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2013 | Espanyol U18 | Man City U18 | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.