Iñaki Williams
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iñaki Williams's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-8.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-8.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2168 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.9M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2168 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -71% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 30 | 2168 | 63% | 3 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 1473 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 35 | 2653 | 78% | 6 | 8 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 1501 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 34 | 2856 | 84% | 12 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 1487 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 36 | 2852 | 83% | 10 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 1511 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 38 | 2784 | 81% | 8 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1540 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 38 | 2395 | 70% | 6 | 7 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 1564 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 38 | 2959 | 87% | 6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 1543 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 38 | 3038 | 89% | 13 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 1554 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 38 | 2852 | 83% | 7 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 1540 | 1490 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 38 | 2802 | 82% | 5 | 8 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 1573 | 1591 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 25 | 1636 | 48% | 8 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 1552 | 1641 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 19 | 1306 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 1574 | 1611 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 313 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ghana | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 955 | 5 | 1 | 1560 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 332 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 388 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 326 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 371 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 1793 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 670 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 141 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 794 | 3 | 1 | 1501 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1399 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 557 | 1 | 1 | 1440 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 264 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 416 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 366 | 2 | 2 | 1493 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 320 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 120 | 1 | 0 | 1520 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dame N'Doye Premier League · 2015 | 30 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Caprari Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Wout Weghorst Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Peter Crouch Premier League · 2013 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dimitar Berbatov Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marco Borriello Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €7.0M | €800k | fell |
| Alassane Pléa Bundesliga · 2023 | 30 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Vedat Muriqi Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Pamplona U19 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.