Wout Weghorst
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wout Weghorst's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1782 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 61.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1782 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €498k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; team strength down (-99 Elo); relative output down 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -82% to -63%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1782 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 27 | 1782 | 58% | 8 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 1261 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 1079 | 35% | 10 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 1322 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 1986 | 65% | 7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 1498 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 16 | 1426 | 44% | 8 | 4 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 1276 | 1517 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | ST | 17 | 797 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 1556 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 18 | 1552 | 51% | 6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 1500 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 20 | 1458 | 43% | 2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.52 | 1570 | 1442 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2950 | 96% | 20 | 9 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 1536 | 1613 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 2740 | 90% | 16 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 1534 | 1562 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2938 | 96% | 17 | 7 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 1519 | 1542 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2762 | 90% | 18 | 6 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 1312 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 29 | 2085 | 68% | 13 | 4 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 1348 | 1369 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2758 | 90% | 12 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1323 | 1314 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2429 | 79% | 8 | 7 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 1346 | 1263 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 172 | 1 | 0 | 1487 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 6 | 379 | 1 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 5 | 284 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 399 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 4 | 329 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 1372 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 761 | 2 | 2 | 1519 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 210 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 540 | 9 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 400 | 1 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 316 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 186 | 0 | 1 | 1342 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 129 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Dzyuba Premier Liga · 2024 | 36 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Steven Zuber Super League 1 · 2024 | 33 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Joãozinho Premier Liga · 2021 | 33 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Nacer Chadli Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €2.8M | €400k | fell |
| Artem Gromov Premier Liga · 2022 | 32 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Eljero Elia Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €650k | €275k | fell |
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2023 | 32 | €2.3M | €150k | fell |
| Jeremain Lens Super Lig · 2019 | 32 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2024 | Burnley | Ajax | €2.4M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Hoffenheim | Burnley | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Burnley | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Man Utd | Burnley | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 13 Jan 2023 | Burnley | Man Utd | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Besiktas | Burnley | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Burnley | Besiktas | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Wolfsburg | Burnley | €17.5M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AZ Alkmaar | Wolfsburg | €10.5M | €7.0M |
| 6 Jul 2016 | Heracles Almelo | AZ Alkmaar | €1.5M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Emmen | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Willem II U21 | FC Emmen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | DETO | Willem II U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | NEO | DETO | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | NEO Jeugd | NEO | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.