João Palhinha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Palhinha's performance-implied value at EUR 10.8M-27.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.6M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-8.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.60x the positional average in the league (2198 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2198 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1618
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €8.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; changed club; team strength down (-208 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo); relative output up 398% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -77% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | DM | 33 | 2198 | 64% | 5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1618 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 17 | 667 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1438 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Fulham FC | Premier League | DM | 33 | 2709 | 79% | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1573 | 1524 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Fulham FC | Premier League | DM | 35 | 3113 | 91% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1574 | 1495 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 27 | 1880 | 61% | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1355 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 32 | 2502 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1336 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 27 | 2092 | 68% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1373 | 1522 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 23 | 1477 | 48% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1347 | 1493 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 2 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1303 | 1605 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | CF Os Belenenses | Liga Portugal | DM | 13 | 1170 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1334 | 1265 | 0.58 |
| 2016/17 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 11 | 418 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1351 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 29 | 2381 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1390 | 1265 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 377 | 1 | 1 | 1534 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1830 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 5 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 5 | 332 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 534 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 578 | 0 | 1 | 1520 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1794 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Iborra Laliga · 2019 | 31 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €20.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Christian Eriksen Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €22.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| William Carvalho Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €16.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ashley Westwood Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jesse Lingard Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €22.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Wayne Rooney Premier League · 2018 | 33 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Tottenham | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Bayern Munich | Tottenham | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 11 Jul 2024 | Fulham | Bayern Munich | €51.0M | €55.0M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Sporting | Fulham | €24.9M | €25.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Braga | Sporting | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 7 Aug 2018 | Sporting | Braga | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 4 Jan 2017 | Belenenses | Sporting | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 9 Aug 2016 | Sporting | Belenenses | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Moreirense | Sporting B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 12 Aug 2015 | Sporting B | Moreirense | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Sacavenense U19 | Sporting U19 | €37k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sacavenense S17 | Sacavenense U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sacavenense S15 | Sacavenense S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Alta Lisboa S15 | Sacavenense S15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.