Luka Jović
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luka Jović's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-17.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-9.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1866 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1866 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.82
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1242
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €9.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 64 pts; changed club; team strength down (-113 Elo); league level down (-223 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -50% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | ST | 24 | 1866 | 80% | 16 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.46 | 1242 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 15 | 553 | 16% | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 1521 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 23 | 868 | 25% | 6 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 1426 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 31 | 1528 | 45% | 6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 1470 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 15 | 359 | 10% | 1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.39 | 1551 | 1812 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 17 | 422 | 12% | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 1472 | 1812 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 2247 | 73% | 17 | 6 | 0.92 | 0.59 | 1492 | 1593 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 928 | 30% | 8 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.76 | 1546 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1296 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1271 | 1712 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 140 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 3 | 164 | 1 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 173 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 3 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1690 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 1698 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 5 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 3 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 14 | 952 | 11 | 1 | 1618 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1863 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 214 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Red Star Belgrade | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1387 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1873 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Prijovic Super League 1 · 2018 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Kyogo Furuhashi Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Kasper Dolberg Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Konstantinos Mitroglou Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €8.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Bruno Gama Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dimitrios Pelkas Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €5.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Jimmy Durmaz Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €3.8M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | AC Milan | AEK Athens | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Fiorentina | AC Milan | €500k | €8.0M |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Frankfurt | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Real Madrid | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Frankfurt | Real Madrid | €63.0M | €60.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica | Frankfurt | €22.3M | €60.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Frankfurt | Benfica | Free / loan | €60.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2016 | Apol. Limassol | Benfica | €6.6M | €1.8M |
| 25 Jan 2016 | Red Star | Apol. Limassol | €2.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Red Star U19 | Red Star | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Red Star U17 | Red Star U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Red Star U15 | Red Star U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Red Star Youth | Red Star U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | FK Loznica U15 | Red Star Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.