Steven Berghuis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Steven Berghuis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1140 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 51.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €701k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1140 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €486k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-99 Elo); relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -81% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1140 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 1140 | 37% | 4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 1276 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 26 | 1431 | 47% | 2 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 1283 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 20 | 1444 | 47% | 5 | 8 | 0.81 | 0.48 | 1345 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 29 | 2103 | 69% | 9 | 9 | 0.77 | 0.35 | 1329 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 33 | 2398 | 78% | 8 | 11 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 1318 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 31 | 2648 | 87% | 18 | 14 | 1.09 | 0.62 | 1346 | 1457 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 24 | 2108 | 94% | 15 | 7 | 0.94 | 0.51 | 1340 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 2879 | 94% | 12 | 12 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 1348 | 1502 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 31 | 2596 | 85% | 18 | 14 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 1301 | 1530 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 30 | 2111 | 69% | 7 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 1351 | 1536 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 9 | 223 | 7% | 0 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 1490 | 1460 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 22 | 1688 | 55% | 11 | 5 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 1347 | 1389 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1403 | 46% | 8 | 6 | 0.90 | 0.65 | 1336 | 1373 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 23 | 981 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.31 | 1379 | 1315 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1569 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 9 | 426 | 0 | 1 | 1554 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 1435 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 387 | 1 | 2 | 1542 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 468 | 2 | 2 | 1731 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 259 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 629 | 3 | 1 | 1591 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 266 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 532 | 1 | 1 | 1502 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 156 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1576 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 355 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 349 | 2 | 3 | 1354 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 315 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1380 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 465 | 1 | 2 | 1731 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 450 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 222 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 159 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 296 | 1 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacer Chadli Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €2.8M | €400k | fell |
| Vincent Aboubakar Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €3.4M | €3.4M | flat |
| Artem Dzyuba Premier Liga · 2024 | 36 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jeremain Lens Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €1.6M | €50k | fell |
| Davidson Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €850k | €350k | fell |
| Nicolai Jörgensen Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Mehdi Carcela-González Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €250k | fell |
| Adem Büyük Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €900k | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2021 | Feyenoord | Ajax | €5.5M | €12.0M |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Watford | Feyenoord | €6.5M | €5.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Feyenoord | Watford | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Watford | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 27 Jul 2015 | AZ Alkmaar | Watford | €6.5M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Twente | AZ Alkmaar | €500k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | VVV-Venlo | FC Twente | Free / loan | €600k |
| 20 Jan 2012 | FC Twente | VVV-Venlo | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Go Ahead U19 | FC Twente U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | WSV Yth. | Go Ahead U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | AGOVV Yth. | WSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.