Damon Mirani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Damon Mirani's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €150k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2933 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €265k – €382k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-147 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -29% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2933 | 96% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1307 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 3016 | 99% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1312 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | DM | 34 | 2889 | 94% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1363 | 1066 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2610 | 85% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1365 | 1213 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 285 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Flinta Superliga · 2015 | 32 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Rasmus Minor Petersen Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Igor Kurylo Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Mykyta Bezuglyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Marvin Peersman Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Nicky Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Xavier Tomas Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €400k | €325k | flat |
| Mads Greve Superliga · 2019 | 30 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Volendam | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Almere City | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €475k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U21 | Almere City | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Volendam Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Monnickend. Yth | Volendam Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.