
Calvin Verdonk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Calvin Verdonk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1146 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1489
- Opponent strength
- 1446
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €904k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; changed club; team strength up (+169 Elo); league level up (+90 Elo); relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -44% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1146 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 786 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1446 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 1171 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LB | 33 | 2852 | 93% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1304 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LB | 33 | 2856 | 93% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1363 | 1336 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 17 | 960 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1329 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LB | 21 | 955 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1388 | 1243 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | LB | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1338 | 1365 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | LB | 12 | 495 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1389 | 1332 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LB | 22 | 1952 | 83% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1349 | 1238 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 12 | 1003 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 1367 | 1502 | 0.61 |
| 2016/17 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LB | 17 | 1357 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1356 | 1260 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 1 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1199 | 1436 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 7 | 435 | 0 | 1 | 1486 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 570 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 208 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 262 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 343 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 152 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémy Morel Ligue 1 · 2014 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wesley Hoedt Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Ferhat Öztorun Super Lig · 2016 | 29 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Aleksandr Martynovich Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Salvatore Bocchetti Premier Liga · 2017 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lasse Nielsen Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.1M | fell |
| Miha Mevlja Premier Liga · 2019 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Charles Traoré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | Lille | €3.0M | €2.5M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Famalicão | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | NEC Nijmegen | Famalicão | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Famalicão | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €900k |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Feyenoord | Famalicão | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Twente | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 15 Aug 2019 | Feyenoord | FC Twente | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Aug 2017 | Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €550k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.