Calvin Verdonk

29 yrs · Left-back (also CB) · Indonesia
LOSC Lille · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 174 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€860k – €2.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€863k – €3.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€904k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.5M – €2.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€860k – €2.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€863k – €3.2M
Projected value (24 months)€904k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Calvin Verdonk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 45

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage54.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1146 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1489
Opponent strength
1446
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€904k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; changed club; team strength up (+169 Elo); league level up (+90 Elo); relative output up 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -44% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1146 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26LOSC LilleLigue 1LB1878626%000.000.07144615470.88
2025/26NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB436012%010.250.09117113620.43
2024/25NEC NijmegenEredivisieLB33285293%110.060.07130413200.50
2023/24NEC NijmegenEredivisieLB33285693%220.130.13136313360.48
2022/23NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB1796031%020.190.13132912660.58
2021/22NEC NijmegenEredivisieLB2195531%110.190.21138812430.60
2021/22FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalLB1130%000.000.13133813650.67
2020/21FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalLB1249516%000.000.10138913320.61
2019/20FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieLB22195283%120.140.14134912380.62
2018/19Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieLB12100333%120.270.14136715020.61
2016/17PEC ZwolleEredivisieLB17135744%000.000.05135612600.54
2014/15Feyenoord RotterdamEredivisieLB1171%000.000.07119914360.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille7435011486
2024/25Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen218200—
2023/24Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen657001—
2022/23Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen320810—
2021/22Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen326210—
2019/20Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede211700—
2018/19Knvb BekerFeyenoord Rotterdam434300—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingFeyenoord Rotterdam190001364
2018/19Johan Cruijff SchaalFeyenoord Rotterdam190101636
2016/17Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle215201—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jérémy Morel
Ligue 1 · 2014
30€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Wesley Hoedt
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
29€2.0M€1.8Mflat
Ferhat Öztorun
Super Lig · 2016
29€1.2M€700kfell
Aleksandr Martynovich
Premier Liga · 2017
30€2.5M€4.0Mrose
Salvatore Bocchetti
Premier Liga · 2017
31€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Lasse Nielsen
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
29€1.6M€1.1Mfell
Miha Mevlja
Premier Liga · 2019
29€3.5M€3.0Mflat
Charles Traoré
Ligue 1 · 2019
27€3.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025NEC NijmegenLille€3.0M€2.5M
6 Jul 2022FamalicãoNEC NijmegenFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2022NEC NijmegenFamalicãoFree / loan€700k
30 Aug 2021FamalicãoNEC NijmegenFree / loan€900k
11 Sept 2020FeyenoordFamalicãoFree / loan€1.6M
30 Jun 2020FC TwenteFeyenoordFree / loan€1.6M
15 Aug 2019FeyenoordFC TwenteFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2018NEC NijmegenFeyenoordFree / loan€500k
2 Aug 2017FeyenoordNEC NijmegenFree / loan€550k
30 Jun 2017PEC ZwolleFeyenoordFree / loan€550k
1 Jul 2016FeyenoordPEC ZwolleFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2015Feyenoord U19FeyenoordUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2014Feyenoord U17Feyenoord U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Feyenoord YouthFeyenoord U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Calvin Verdonk · MoneyballAI