Dominic Solanke

29 yrs · Striker · England
Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€28.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€18.5M – €38.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€15.5M – €26.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€7.5M – €15.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€23.2M – €8.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€18.5M – €38.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€15.5M – €26.5M
Projected value (24 months)€7.5M – €15.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€28.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dominic Solanke's performance-implied value at EUR 15.5M-26.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.5M-38.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.5M-15.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1001 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 0

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite90.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.8 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €26.6M vs market €28.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1001 (29% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.27
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.39
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
90 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1564
Opponent strength
1591
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€7.5M – €15.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -72% to -34%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1001 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueST15100129%300.270.39159115641.30
2024/25Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueST27220665%930.490.45158715641.23
2023/24AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueST38333397%1930.590.65158214961.14
2022/23AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueST33287384%670.410.58155814251.23
2019/20AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueST32164448%310.220.43160314151.14
2018/19AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueST1034110%010.260.41146614951.22
2017/18Liverpool FCPremier LeagueST2158217%110.310.28149017791.15
2015/16Vitesse ArnhemEredivisieST25181159%710.400.38133813700.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur3132301662
2025/26Uefa Super CupTottenham Hotspur118001830
2025/26Fa CupTottenham Hotspur1700—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur13804541558
2024/25Fa CupTottenham Hotspur15100—
2023/24Fa CupAFC Bournemouth14511—
2022/23Fa CupAFC Bournemouth19010—
2019/20Fa CupAFC Bournemouth217910—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC336001679
2017/18Fa CupLiverpool FC11300—
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingLiverpool FC16001592
2015/16Knvb BekerVitesse Arnhem19000—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC117001442

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Christian Benteke
Premier League · 2019
29€15.0M€9.0Mfell
Cenk Tosun
Premier League · 2019
28€18.0M€5.0Mfell
Bernard
Premier League · 2020
28€16.0M€4.5Mfell
Richarlison
Premier League · 2023
26€48.0M€20.0Mfell
Lucas Moura
Premier League · 2021
29€25.0M€6.0Mfell
Vitolo
Laliga · 2018
29€25.0M€14.5Mfell
Beto
Premier League · 2024
26€20.0M€18.0Mflat
Patrik Schick
Bundesliga · 2023
27€25.0M€27.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Aug 2024BournemouthTottenham€64.3M€40.0M
4 Jan 2019LiverpoolBournemouth€21.2M€10.0M
10 Jul 2017Chelsea U23LiverpoolFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2016VitesseChelsea U21Free / loan€2.0M
4 Aug 2015Chelsea U21VitesseFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2015Chelsea U18Chelsea U21Unknown€250k
1 Jul 2014Chelsea YouthChelsea U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Dominic Solanke · MoneyballAI