Umut Bozok
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Umut Bozok's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2101 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €872k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2101 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €573k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 47 pts; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -74% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | ST | 32 | 2101 | 69% | 6 | 6 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 1265 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | ST | 15 | 647 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 1288 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 4 | 40 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 2.25 | 0.42 | 1185 | 1307 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 13 | 424 | 12% | 1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.53 | 1324 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 27 | 1133 | 35% | 8 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 1278 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | ST | 38 | 2541 | 74% | 20 | 7 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 1257 | 1312 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 5 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1345 | 1344 | 0.75 |
| 2018/19 | Nîmes Olympique | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 1233 | 36% | 2 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 1452 | 1440 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 5 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 1554 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeniy Markov Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Yusuf Erdoğan Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €475k | fell |
| Martin Boyle Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
| Levan Shengelia Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Messoudi Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 30 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Giovanni Sio Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.4M | €300k | fell |
| Tim Matthys Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 31 | €800k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Eyüpspor | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Trabzonspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | FC Lorient | Trabzonspor | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kasimpasa | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Jul 2021 | FC Lorient | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Troyes | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | FC Lorient | Troyes | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nîmes Olympique | FC Lorient | €1.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | GS Consolat M. | Nîmes Olympique | €150k | €500k |
| 12 Jul 2016 | FC Metz B | GS Consolat M. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.