Unai Simón
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Unai Simón's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-25.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-14.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18.1M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.8M – €14.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -69% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3184 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 31 | 2745 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1560 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 34 | 2992 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1588 | 1540 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1793 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraser Forster Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Alessio Cragno Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €20.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marvin Schwäbe Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| David Soria Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Fernando Pacheco Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Adrián San Miguel Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gerónimo Rulli Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bilbao U18 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.