Attila Szalai

28 yrs · Centre-back · Hungary
Kasimpasa · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 192 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€525k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€339k – €732k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€700k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.4M – €207k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€525k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€339k – €732k
Projected value (24 months)€700k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Attila Szalai's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average16.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1163 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
17 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1203
Opponent strength
1263
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€700k – €2.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -68% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1163 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KasimpasaSuper LigCB15116338%010.080.08126312030.40
2024/25Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueCB42449%000.000.09155413170.63
2023/24TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaCB42899%000.000.05149814711.01
2023/24SC FreiburgBundesligaCB31013%000.000.07162214811.01
2022/23FenerbahceSuper LigCB32288089%220.130.08127815160.50
2021/22FenerbahceSuper LigCB31222965%120.120.08124014220.42
2020/21FenerbahceSuper LigCB21183451%300.150.09127013800.37

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim14500—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce8720001523
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingFenerbahce4280001326
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFenerbahce2210101530
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce6386001532
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingFenerbahce2180001371
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingApollon Limassol3270111320

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tayfur Bingöl
Super Lig · 2021
28€850k€1.7Mrose
Teenage Hadebe
Super Lig · 2024
29€2.0M€900kfell
Mert Çetin
Super Lig · 2022
25€1.7M€700kfell
Rami Gershon
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
26€900k€1.8Mrose
Lucas Taylor
Premier Liga · 2024
29€600k€200kfell
Giannis Skondras
Scottish Premiership · 2017
27€700k€450kfell
Simon Deli
Super Lig · 2022
31€1.8M€200kfell
Viktor Korniyenko
Premier Liga · 2024
25€1.0M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Pogon SzczecinHoffenheimFree / loan€2.0M
27 Jan 2026HoffenheimPogon SzczecinFree / loan€2.0M
26 Jan 2026KasimpasaHoffenheimFree / loan€2.0M
11 Jul 2025HoffenheimKasimpasaFree / loan€1.7M
30 Jun 2025Standard LiègeHoffenheimFree / loan€1.7M
12 Jan 2025HoffenheimStandard LiègeFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2024FreiburgHoffenheimFree / loan€4.0M
21 Jan 2024HoffenheimFreiburgFree / loan€10.0M
24 Jul 2023FenerbahçeHoffenheim€12.3M€14.0M
18 Jan 2021Apol. LimassolFenerbahçe€3.9M€800k
1 Jul 2019MezőkövesdApol. Limassol€275k€300k
21 Jul 2017Rapid Wien IIMezőkövesdFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015AKA Rapid U18Rapid Wien IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014AKA Rapid U16AKA Rapid U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013AKA Rapid U15AKA Rapid U16UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2012Vasas Yth.AKA Rapid U15UnknownData unavailable
5 Aug 2010Vác Yth.Vasas Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Gödi SE Jgd.Vác Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Attila Szalai · MoneyballAI