Manuel Locatelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Manuel Locatelli's performance-implied value at EUR 16.4M-40.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.4M-27.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-19.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (3005 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €20.6M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3005 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.4M – €19.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -28% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 36 | 3005 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1489 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 36 | 2833 | 83% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1491 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 36 | 3011 | 88% | 1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1479 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 32 | 2458 | 72% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1480 | 1614 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 31 | 2163 | 63% | 3 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 1494 | 1623 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | DM | 34 | 2885 | 84% | 4 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1441 | 1502 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | DM | 33 | 2595 | 76% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1440 | 1428 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1849 | 54% | 2 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1476 | 1351 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | AC Milan | Serie A | DM | 21 | 669 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1466 | 1555 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | AC Milan | Serie A | DM | 25 | 1689 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1439 | 1519 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 2 | 93 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1643 | 1515 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 646 | 1 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 108 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 671 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 332 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 8 | 643 | 0 | 0 | 1592 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 273 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 539 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 262 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 7 | 454 | 0 | 0 | 1452 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 2 | 163 | 0 | 1 | 1372 |
| 2016/17 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1818 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Luiz Gustavo Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €22.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Radja Nainggolan Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Marten de Roon Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €19.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Axel Witsel Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €23.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Piotr Zielinski Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Gonzalo Castro Bundesliga · 2014 | 27 | €12.0M | €14.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sassuolo | Juventus | €36.4M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Juventus | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Sassuolo | Juventus | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | €14.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 13 Aug 2018 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Milan U19 | AC Milan | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AC Milan Youth | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Atalanta Youth | AC Milan Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.