Youssef Aït Bennasser
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Youssef Aït Bennasser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1476 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €242k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1476 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €332k – €613k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; changed club; team strength down (-139 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -38% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1476 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 21 | 1476 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1269 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | DM | 30 | 2462 | 76% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1287 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | DM | 28 | 1907 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1294 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | DM | 12 | 534 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1418 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 13 | 1074 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1454 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | DM | 13 | 937 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1474 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 2053 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1477 | 1299 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | AS Nancy-Lorraine | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 1936 | 57% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1418 | 1325 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 3 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €775k | €500k | fell |
| Miguel Mellado Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Charilaos Charisis Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Radomir Milosavljevic Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Bryan Idowu Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Jordan Tillson Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Elmar Bjarnason Superliga · 2017 | 30 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Evripidis Giakos Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €450k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sept 2025 | Samsunspor | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 17 Feb 2023 | Adanaspor | Samsunspor | Unknown | €750k |
| 8 Sept 2021 | Monaco | Adanaspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | G. Bordeaux | Monaco | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Monaco | G. Bordeaux | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Saint-Étienne | Monaco | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Monaco | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | SM Caen | Monaco | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 16 Aug 2017 | Monaco | SM Caen | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | AS Nancy | Monaco | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Jul 2016 | Monaco | AS Nancy | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AS Nancy | Monaco | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jul 2015 | AS Nancy B | AS Nancy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AS Nancy U19 | AS Nancy B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.