Fabiano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabiano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 31.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €150k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1485 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1182
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €128k – €376k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 276% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -47% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1485 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1485 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1182 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 18 | 1382 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1242 | 1288 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 19 | 1665 | 71% | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1263 | 1348 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 2025 | 87% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1253 | 1314 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 22 | 1931 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1262 | 1339 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Denizlispor | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2691 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1271 | 1063 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2231 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1385 | 1294 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 204 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 1389 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1452 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 375 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Bravo Super League 1 · 2015 | 34 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Ryan Donk Super Lig · 2022 | 36 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Ömer Toprak Super Lig · 2024 | 35 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Lee Mair Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 34 | €250k | €225k | flat |
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Christos Karypidis Super League 1 · 2016 | 34 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Christophe Berra Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 35 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Güray Vural Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €775k | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2021 | Denizlispor | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Sept 2020 | Palmeiras | Denizlispor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Boavista | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Palmeiras | Boavista | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Internacional | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €900k |
| 12 Mar 2018 | Palmeiras | Internacional | Free / loan | €900k |
| 11 Jan 2017 | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | €600k | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Palmeiras | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 6 May 2016 | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Chapecoense | Cruzeiro | €1.4M | €400k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.