Tobias Lauritsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Lauritsen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (3043 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3043 (99% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-87 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -48% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 3043 | 99% | 12 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 1307 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2715 | 89% | 10 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 1300 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2493 | 81% | 12 | 9 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 1352 | 1327 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2967 | 97% | 12 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 1344 | 1394 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 135 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 110 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riad Bajic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| German Onugkha Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €1.7M | €1.8M | flat |
| Alessandro Cordaro Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Reza Ghoochannejhad Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mirlind Daku Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Bojan Miovski Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Brana Ilic Super League 1 · 2014 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Iñigo Córdoba Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sparta R. | Without Club | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Odd | Sparta R. | €450k | €500k |
| 18 Jan 2018 | Pors Fotball | Odd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Sept 2016 | Odd II | Pors Fotball | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Urædd FK | Odd II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2013 | Herkules Fotbal | Urædd FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.