Mirlind Daku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mirlind Daku's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-8.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2063 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.6M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2063 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €8.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -43% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | ST | 24 | 2063 | 76% | 10 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 1320 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 2311 | 86% | 15 | 8 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1297 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 2457 | 91% | 10 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 1348 | 1271 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 5 | 320 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 5 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fedor Chalov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Sobolev Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Cristo Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Güray Vural Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Bryan Linssen Eredivisie · 2019 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Jason Remeseiro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tobias Lauritsen Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Denis Bouanga Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2023 | NK Osijek | Rubin Kazan | €1.2M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | NS Mura | NK Osijek | Free / loan | €800k |
| 4 Feb 2022 | NK Osijek | NS Mura | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | NK Osijek II | NK Osijek | Unknown | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Ballkani | NK Osijek II | Free / loan | €350k |
| 28 Jan 2020 | NK Osijek II | FC Ballkani | Free / loan | €75k |
| 22 Jan 2020 | FK Kukësi | NK Osijek II | Free / loan | €75k |
| 12 Aug 2019 | NK Osijek II | FK Kukësi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jul 2018 | FC Llapi | NK Osijek II | €60k | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jan 2017 | KF Hajvalia | FC Llapi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.