Paul Onuachu

32 yrs · Striker · Nigeria
Trabzonspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 201 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.8M – €6.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €7.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.5M – €6.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €6.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €7.9M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Paul Onuachu's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-7.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (2525 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 10

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average74.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.6M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-60% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €22.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2525 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.85
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.63
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
75 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1368
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 52 pts; changed club; team strength up (+92 Elo); league level down (-321 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -62% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26TrabzonsporSuper LigST30252583%2220.860.62127113680.40
2024/25Southampton FCPremier LeagueST25104531%410.430.74156312771.23
2023/24TrabzonsporSuper LigST21151444%1541.130.73127213790.45
2022/23KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST19118239%1601.220.66130414950.58
2022/23Southampton FCPremier LeagueST1140512%000.000.49153013751.23
2021/22KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST29216071%1930.920.69134113560.49
2020/21KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST33259085%2921.080.71134314140.55
2019/20KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST22153759%910.590.46135514290.63
2018/19FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST23182478%1450.940.55130215020.44
2017/18FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST17109647%930.990.57125214920.47
2016/17FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST25177376%920.560.45131213770.48
2015/16FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST25106036%620.680.48129414470.53
2013/14FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST111395%010.650.48133514150.63
2012/13FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST180%000.000.43118713770.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsNigeria513210—
2024/25Fa CupSouthampton FC12300—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk5374101586
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingKRC Genk2164101554
2021/22Volkswagen SupercupKRC Genk145001570
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueKRC Genk5212011747
2018/19Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland432331—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4260201362
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland2180001482
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland6462421316
2017/18Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland319531—
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland6457211402
2016/17Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland327631—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland8270201590
2015/16Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland221011—
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland19001400
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland11001550
2013/14Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland11300—
2012/13Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland17800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Steven Zuber
Super League 1 · 2022
31€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Edin Visca
Super Lig · 2024
34€2.5M€100kfell
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Premier Liga · 2024
30€4.5M€2.5Mfell
Kamil Wilczek
Superliga · 2019
31€1.5M€600kfell
Jhon Córdoba
Premier Liga · 2023
30€11.0M€12.0Mflat
Jérémy Perbet
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
32€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Mamadou Fall
Super Lig · 2023
31€1.7M€1.2Mfell
Lukas Podolski
Super Lig · 2016
31€8.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025SouthamptonTrabzonspor€5.7M€6.0M
30 Jun 2024TrabzonsporSouthamptonFree / loan€13.0M
11 Sept 2023SouthamptonTrabzonsporFree / loan€13.0M
31 Jan 2023GenkSouthampton€18.0M€15.0M
22 Aug 2019MidtjyllandGenk€6.0M€6.0M
30 Jun 2015Vejle BKMidtjyllandFree / loan€200k
2 Feb 2015MidtjyllandVejle BKFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2013Midtjylland U19MidtjyllandUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012FC EbedeiMidtjylland U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.