
Paul Onuachu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paul Onuachu's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-7.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (2525 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2525 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.85
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.63
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 52 pts; changed club; team strength up (+92 Elo); league level down (-321 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -62% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 30 | 2525 | 83% | 22 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 1271 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | ST | 25 | 1045 | 31% | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 1563 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 21 | 1514 | 44% | 15 | 4 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1272 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 19 | 1182 | 39% | 16 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.66 | 1304 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | ST | 11 | 405 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1530 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 29 | 2160 | 71% | 19 | 3 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1341 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 33 | 2590 | 85% | 29 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 1343 | 1414 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 22 | 1537 | 59% | 9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 1355 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 23 | 1824 | 78% | 14 | 5 | 0.94 | 0.55 | 1302 | 1502 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 17 | 1096 | 47% | 9 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.57 | 1252 | 1492 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 25 | 1773 | 76% | 9 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.45 | 1312 | 1377 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 25 | 1060 | 36% | 6 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 1294 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2013/14 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 11 | 139 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 1335 | 1415 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1187 | 1377 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Nigeria | 5 | 132 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 5 | 374 | 1 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 164 | 1 | 0 | 1554 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | KRC Genk | 5 | 212 | 0 | 1 | 1747 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 323 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 260 | 2 | 0 | 1362 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 462 | 4 | 2 | 1316 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 195 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 457 | 2 | 1 | 1402 |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 276 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 210 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1400 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2013/14 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Zuber Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Edin Visca Super Lig · 2024 | 34 | €2.5M | €100k | fell |
| Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kamil Wilczek Superliga · 2019 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Jhon Córdoba Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jérémy Perbet Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mamadou Fall Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €1.7M | €1.2M | fell |
| Lukas Podolski Super Lig · 2016 | 31 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Southampton | Trabzonspor | €5.7M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Trabzonspor | Southampton | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 11 Sept 2023 | Southampton | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Genk | Southampton | €18.0M | €15.0M |
| 22 Aug 2019 | Midtjylland | Genk | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Vejle BK | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €200k |
| 2 Feb 2015 | Midtjylland | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Ebedei | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.