Robin Gosens
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Gosens's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-8.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1893 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1537
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; team strength down (-68 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -73% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LB | 26 | 1893 | 55% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1537 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LB | 32 | 2527 | 74% | 5 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 1497 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | LM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1489 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | LM | 30 | 2297 | 75% | 6 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1507 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 32 | 1173 | 34% | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 1429 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 6 | 462 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 1448 | 1566 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 7 | 164 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.18 | 1414 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 32 | 2538 | 74% | 11 | 6 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1453 | 1673 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 34 | 2628 | 77% | 9 | 8 | 0.58 | 0.36 | 1426 | 1666 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 28 | 1944 | 57% | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1426 | 1570 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 21 | 1450 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1488 | 1556 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LB | 28 | 2329 | 76% | 2 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 1319 | 1303 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LM | 32 | 1904 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1327 | 1314 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Dordrecht | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2442 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1348 | 1101 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 121 | 1 | 2 | 1212 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 75 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 6 | 441 | 1 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 11 | 418 | 1 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 5 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 2 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 567 | 1 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 5 | 421 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 8 | 654 | 1 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Atalanta BC | 5 | 448 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 3 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | FC Dordrecht | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Gudelj Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Hugo Mallo Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Hugo Campagnaro Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €4.2M | €100k | fell |
| Lukas Kübler Bundesliga · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dimitri Foulquier Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Chris Brunt Premier League · 2016 | 32 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Adrien Tamèze Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Issiaga Sylla Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Union Berlin | Fiorentina | €7.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fiorentina | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Union Berlin | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Inter | Union Berlin | €13.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atalanta | Inter | €27.4M | €28.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Inter | Atalanta | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Atalanta | Inter | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Heracles Almelo | Atalanta | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vitesse U21 | Heracles Almelo | €200k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | FC Dordrecht | Vitesse U21 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Jan 2014 | Vitesse U21 | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Vitesse U19 | Vitesse U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | VfL Rhede U19 | Vit./AGOVV U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | VfL Rhede U17 | VfL Rhede U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Bocholt Yth. | VfL Rhede U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | F. Elten Yth. | Bocholt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.