David Costas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Costas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €823k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2064 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €367k – €1.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -70% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2064 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1501 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2019/20 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 6 | 335 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1526 | 1479 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 15 | 1173 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1546 | 1494 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 1508 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2014/15 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1759 | 1564 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 17 | 1203 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1511 | 1533 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1378 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Bianchetti Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Bram Nuytinck Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Dani Castellano Laliga · 2018 | 31 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Alessandro Tuia Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Georg Margreitter Bundesliga · 2019 | 31 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Guido Milán Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
| Milan Perendija Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Paul Baysse Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2021 | Celta de Vigo | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 17 Aug 2020 | UD Almería | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Celta de Vigo | UD Almería | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Barcelona B | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Celta de Vigo | Barcelona B | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Real Oviedo | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 14 Jan 2017 | Celta de Vigo | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | RCD Mallorca | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Celta de Vigo | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Celta U19 | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.