Borja Iglesias

33 yrs · Striker · Spain
Celta de Vigo · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€913k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.2M – €5.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€661k – €1.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€259k – €4.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€913k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.2M – €5.8M
Projected value (24 months)€661k – €1.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Borja Iglesias's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.27x the positional average in the league (1902 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh85.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.2M vs market €2.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-62% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1902 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.76
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.65
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1498
Opponent strength
1496
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€661k – €1.9M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -78% (IQR -82% to -61%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Celta de VigoLaligaST35190256%1420.760.65149614980.95
2024/25Celta de VigoLaligaST37196457%1130.640.69152414760.95
2023/24Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST1140412%010.220.46151415201.00
2023/24Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaST72528%000.000.20139817871.01
2022/23Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST35238170%1530.680.58151615300.98
2021/22Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST33157146%1000.570.50151215881.05
2020/21Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST28141141%1100.700.69156015571.10
2019/20Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST35192156%330.280.40151914811.16
2018/19RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaST37308390%1730.580.60155115591.14
2014/15Celta de VigoLaligaST1110%000.000.64165615641.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueCelta de Vigo13718211492
2025/26Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo29020—
2024/25Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo29900—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié6377111486
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen2139001543
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié19010—
2023/24Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen12600—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié6143011546
2022/23SupercopaReal Betis Balompié167001731
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié16201—
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié864750—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié10556421535
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié420520—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingRCD Espanyol Barcelona3245311316
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié214701—
2018/19Copa Del ReyRCD Espanyol Barcelona641630—
2015/16Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo13900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Max Kruse
Bundesliga · 2021
33€5.0M€900kfell
Riccardo Meggiorini
Serie A · 2016
31€3.5M€600kfell
Antonio Cassano
Serie A · 2013
31€6.0M€1.0Mfell
Ante Budimir
Laliga · 2024
33€5.0M€2.8Mfell
Roger Martí
Laliga · 2022
31€5.0M€1.2Mfell
Lars Stindl
Bundesliga · 2021
33€5.0M€1.0Mfell
Mauricio Pinilla
Serie A · 2015
31€2.2M€800kfell
Fidel
Laliga · 2022
33€2.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
12 Aug 2025Real BetisCelta de Vigo€2.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2025Celta de VigoReal BetisFree / loan€3.0M
19 Jul 2024Real BetisCelta de VigoFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2024LeverkusenReal BetisFree / loan€5.0M
27 Jan 2024Real BetisLeverkusenFree / loan€8.0M
14 Aug 2019EspanyolReal Betis€28.0M€28.0M
9 Jul 2018Celta de VigoEspanyol€10.0M€1.0M
8 Jul 2018Celta Vigo BCelta de VigoUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2018Real ZaragozaCelta Vigo BFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2017Celta Vigo BReal ZaragozaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2013FC Villarreal CCelta Vigo BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Villarreal U19FC Villarreal CUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Roda U19Villarreal U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Valencia CF YouRoda U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.