Zelimkhan Bakaev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zelimkhan Bakaev's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1615 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1615 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €809k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+214 Elo); relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -61% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1615 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RW | 25 | 1615 | 60% | 3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 1314 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | RW | 25 | 1645 | 61% | 4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 1301 | 1204 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RW | 4 | 132 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.26 | 1274 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | AM | 17 | 307 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 1291 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 1383 | 51% | 0 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 1335 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 23 | 983 | 36% | 1 | 6 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 1359 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 2184 | 81% | 6 | 10 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 1395 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | RW | 25 | 1821 | 67% | 8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 1413 | 1427 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 5 | 250 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1363 | 1551 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 9 | 497 | 0 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 3 | 210 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 354 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 266 | 1 | 1 | 1571 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 205 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 168 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 343 | 3 | 0 | 1444 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 316 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | Arsenal Tula | 4 | 289 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Duplan Eredivisie · 2013 | 30 | €1.4M | €800k | fell |
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2023 | 32 | €2.3M | €150k | fell |
| Tom De Sutter Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.3M | fell |
| Emre Akbaba Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Rúben Ribeiro Liga Portugal · 2018 | 31 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Abdoulay Diaby Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Adem Büyük Super Lig · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Amara Baby Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 29 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Khimki | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Aug 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Khimki | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Al-Wahda | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 19 Sept 2023 | Zenit S-Pb | Al-Wahda | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Spartak Moscow | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Arsenal Tula | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Spartak Moscow | Arsenal Tula | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.