Marin Pongracic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marin Pongracic's performance-implied value at EUR 6.8M-17.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-6.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.1M vs market €6.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2918 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €6.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -58% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 35 | 2918 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1487 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1368 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1514 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 36 | 3220 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1483 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 9 | 791 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1387 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 821 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1469 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 10 | 576 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1540 | 1613 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 930 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1551 | 1562 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Croatia | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1214 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Wollscheid Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €6.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Joseph Aidoo Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €7.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €7.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Marc Wilson Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kevin Vogt Bundesliga · 2017 | 26 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mike Williamson Premier League · 2014 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | Lecce | Fiorentina | €15.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Wolfsburg | Lecce | €1.6M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Lecce | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 22 Aug 2022 | Wolfsburg | Lecce | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Dortmund | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Wolfsburg | Dortmund | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Salzburg | Wolfsburg | €9.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | 1860 Munich | Salzburg | €1.0M | €250k |
| 16 Apr 2017 | 1860 München II | 1860 Munich | Unknown | €25k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Ingolstadt U19 | 1860 München II | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ingolstadt U17 | Ingolstadt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | B. München Yth. | Ingolstadt U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Landshut Jgd. | B. München Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.