Carles Pérez

28 yrs · Right winger (also AM) · Spain
Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 · Foot: left · Height: 173 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€458k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€749k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€654k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€688k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€458k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€749k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€654k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Carles Pérez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (1189 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average34.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €610k vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1189 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
35 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1278
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€654k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-140 Elo); league level down (-210 Elo); relative output down 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -43% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1189 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
19 (ATT)
Relative output kept
99%–112%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
47%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1RW18118951%000.000.18127812550.43
2024/25Getafe CFLaligaRW27143042%300.190.37151813950.95
2023/24Celta de VigoLaligaRW1676822%110.230.43145414491.00
2022/23Celta de VigoLaligaRW35214663%350.340.41149914410.98
2021/22Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARW1954216%110.330.23139715890.89
2020/21Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AAM2176122%220.470.28139315910.90
2019/20Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARW1456316%130.640.32134715820.82
2019/20FC BarcelonaLaligaRW1047314%130.760.26149318131.16

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis322600—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis190001350
2024/25Copa Del ReyGetafe CF315000—
2023/24Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo37320—
2022/23Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo326321—
2021/22Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma14500—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingAssociazione Sportiva Roma226001384
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma9563111520
2020/21Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma13500—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma3206101592
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona185101630
2019/20Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona15900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Houssam Ghacha
Super Lig · 2023
28€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Ramazan Civelek
Super Lig · 2024
28€1.0M€700kfell
Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
Super Lig · 2022
29€1.8M€1.2Mfell
Konrad Michalak
Super Lig · 2023
26€1.7M€600kfell
İbrahim Yılmaz
Super Lig · 2023
29€750k€200kfell
Ximo Navarro
Super League 1 · 2015
27€500k€350kfell
Mateo García
Super League 1 · 2021
25€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Kenan Karaman
Super Lig · 2022
28€1.4M€1.4Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Aris SalonikiCelta de VigoFree / loan€1.8M
10 Jul 2025Celta de VigoAris SalonikiFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2025GetafeCelta de VigoFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jul 2024Celta de VigoGetafeFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2023RomaCelta de Vigo€5.2M€5.0M
30 Jun 2023Celta de VigoRomaFree / loan€5.0M
9 Aug 2022RomaCelta de VigoFree / loan€6.0M
1 Sept 2020BarcelonaRoma€13.0M€9.0M
31 Aug 2020RomaBarcelonaFree / loan€9.0M
30 Jan 2020BarcelonaRomaFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2019Barcelona BBarcelonaUnknown€1.5M
1 Jul 2017Barça U19Barcelona BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Barça U18Barça U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Barça U16Barça U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Espanyol YouthBarça U16Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008CF Damm YouthEspanyol YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Carles Pérez · MoneyballAI