Ludovic Ajorque

32 yrs · Striker · France
Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 196 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€997k – €2.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.8M – €6.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€834k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€1.0M – €5.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€997k – €2.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.8M – €6.9M
Projected value (24 months)€834k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ludovic Ajorque's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-6.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2824 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 34

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh82.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.3M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-56% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €16.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2824 (92% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.57
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.54
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1407
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€834k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -72% to -33%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1ST32282492%8100.570.54147114070.88
2024/25Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1ST31250682%1330.570.50145114720.88
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST26135644%200.130.31149814891.01
2022/231.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST17122140%610.520.50151714961.04
2022/23RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1ST1377123%100.120.34145914410.82
2021/22RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1ST36274480%1280.660.63142715030.86
2020/21RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1ST35297287%1640.610.60142313800.75
2019/20RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1ST26206985%840.520.54141714300.82
2018/19RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1ST25153945%910.580.62145214080.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueStade Brestois 298642031647
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05212210—
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0516700—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingRC Strasbourg Alsace6391211494

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jimmy Briand
Ligue 1 · 2017
32€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Germán Denis
Serie A · 2014
33€4.5M€1.0Mfell
Alberto Gilardino
Serie A · 2014
32€5.0M€1.0Mfell
Cyril Théréau
Serie A · 2013
30€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Aleksandr Samedov
Premier Liga · 2016
32€4.0M€1.2Mfell
Marko Arnautovic
Serie A · 2022
33€6.0M€4.0Mfell
Junya Ito
Ligue 1 · 2024
31€8.0M€3.0Mfell
Gaëtan Charbonnier
Ligue 1 · 2020
32€2.0M€1.3Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025MainzStade Brestois€2.0M€4.0M
30 Jun 2025Stade BrestoisMainzFree / loan€4.0M
25 Jul 2024MainzStade BrestoisFree / loan€3.0M
24 Jan 2023R. StrasbourgMainz€6.0M€11.0M
1 Jul 2018Clermont FootR. Strasbourg€2.0M€900k
26 Jul 2016Angers SCOClermont FootUnknown€250k
30 Jun 2016Luçon VFAngers SCOFree / loan€150k
5 Jul 2015Angers SCOLuçon VFFree / loan€150k
30 Jun 2015Poiré-sur-VieAngers SCOFree / loan€150k
10 Nov 2014Angers SCOPoiré-sur-VieFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Angers SCO BAngers SCOUnknownData unavailable
31 Jan 2012Angers SCO U19Angers SCO BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.