
Ludovic Ajorque
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ludovic Ajorque's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-6.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2824 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2824 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.57
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €834k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -72% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2824 | 92% | 8 | 10 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 1471 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 31 | 2506 | 82% | 13 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 1451 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 26 | 1356 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 1498 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 17 | 1221 | 40% | 6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 1517 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 13 | 771 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 1459 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 36 | 2744 | 80% | 12 | 8 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 1427 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 35 | 2972 | 87% | 16 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 1423 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 26 | 2069 | 85% | 8 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 1417 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 1539 | 45% | 9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 1452 | 1408 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 642 | 0 | 3 | 1647 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 122 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 6 | 391 | 2 | 1 | 1494 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Briand Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Germán Denis Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alberto Gilardino Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cyril Théréau Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Samedov Premier Liga · 2016 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Marko Arnautovic Serie A · 2022 | 33 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Junya Ito Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gaëtan Charbonnier Ligue 1 · 2020 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Mainz | Stade Brestois | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Stade Brestois | Mainz | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 25 Jul 2024 | Mainz | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 24 Jan 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Mainz | €6.0M | €11.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Clermont Foot | R. Strasbourg | €2.0M | €900k |
| 26 Jul 2016 | Angers SCO | Clermont Foot | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Luçon VF | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €150k |
| 5 Jul 2015 | Angers SCO | Luçon VF | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Poiré-sur-Vie | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €150k |
| 10 Nov 2014 | Angers SCO | Poiré-sur-Vie | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Angers SCO B | Angers SCO | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2012 | Angers SCO U19 | Angers SCO B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.