Carles Aleñá
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carles Aleñá's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-8.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1997 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1997 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -48% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 34 | 1997 | 58% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 1484 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 14 | 1097 | 32% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 1505 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 10 | 452 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1569 | 1395 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 29 | 1007 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 1504 | 1415 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2126 | 62% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1514 | 1434 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2339 | 68% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1535 | 1458 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 22 | 1368 | 40% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 1554 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 2 | 48 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1547 | 1743 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 17 | 730 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1551 | 1481 | 1.16 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 4 | 170 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1491 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 15 | 590 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1492 | 1873 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 3 | 40 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1429 | 1861 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 206 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 3 | 174 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 3 | 203 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 210 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 299 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 1766 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 76 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyle Larin Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Franco Cervi Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Jan Holenda Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| Ángel Lafita Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fabián Orellana Laliga · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Jorge de Frutos Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Takuma Asano Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Riccardo Meggiorini Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €1.7M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Getafe | Alavés | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Alavés | Getafe | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Getafe | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 10 Jul 2021 | Barcelona | Getafe | €5.0M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Getafe | Barcelona | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 6 Jan 2021 | Barcelona | Getafe | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | Real Betis | Barcelona | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Barcelona | Real Betis | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 4 Dec 2018 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.