Baptiste Santamaria
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Baptiste Santamaria's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.50x the positional average in the league (743 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 68.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €997k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 743 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1523
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €773k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; changed club; relative output up 98% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -75% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 743 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 19 | 743 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 1523 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 13 | 931 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1463 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 10 | 480 | 16% | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 1479 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 1931 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1473 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 25 | 1813 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1401 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 2516 | 74% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1426 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1384 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2221 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1527 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1407 | 1326 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 28 | 2506 | 99% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1434 | 1415 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 38 | 3247 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1461 | 1409 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 2598 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1462 | 1381 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 37 | 3075 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1423 | 1417 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 272 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 356 | 0 | 1 | 1564 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 3 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Faraoni Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Matías Vecino Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Daniel Didavi Bundesliga · 2021 | 31 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
| Jonathan de Guzmán Bundesliga · 2018 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Alexander Farnerud Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Gastón Ramírez Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €3.5M | €200k | fell |
| Valon Berisha Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aday Benítez Laliga · 2019 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | Stade Rennais | Valencia | €2.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Nice | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Stade Rennais | Nice | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Freiburg | Stade Rennais | €14.0M | €15.0M |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Angers SCO | Freiburg | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Tours FC | Angers SCO | €500k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Tours B | Tours FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Tours FC U19 | Tours B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Tours FC U17 | Tours FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.