Jens Stage
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jens Stage's performance-implied value at EUR 5.5M-14.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.0M-13.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-10.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.59x the positional average in the league (2468 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2468 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €10.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-104 Elo); relative output down 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -58% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 2468 | 81% | 10 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 1484 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 2210 | 72% | 10 | 5 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 1484 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2336 | 76% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1518 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 1860 | 61% | 3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 1533 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1626 | 82% | 5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1262 | 1516 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 15 | 1013 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 1272 | 1409 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1423 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1255 | 1474 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | RM | 25 | 2062 | 88% | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1316 | 1221 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 16 | 1048 | 45% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1296 | 1231 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 12 | 569 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 1307 | 1221 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 6 | 253 | 9% | 0 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.39 | 1321 | 1262 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 231 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 374 | 2 | 1 | 1337 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1415 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 144 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 9 | 772 | 1 | 1 | 1566 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 330 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1265 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 149 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 299 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Tamèze Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Luca Cigarini Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Marshall Munetsi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Téji Savanier Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Mitchell Weiser Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Rafael van der Vaart Bundesliga · 2014 | 31 | €7.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Diamanti Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Copenhagen | Werder Bremen | €4.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Aarhus GF | Copenhagen | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 27 Jan 2016 | Brabrand IF | Aarhus GF | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Brabrand IF U19 | Brabrand IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | IF Lyseng U19 | Brabrand IF U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.