Ellyes Skhiri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ellyes Skhiri's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.34x the positional average in the league (1442 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1442 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -65% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1442 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1442 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1505 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2234 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1501 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 27 | 2171 | 71% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1515 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2857 | 93% | 7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 1529 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 22 | 1812 | 59% | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1499 | 1500 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2791 | 91% | 5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 1546 | 1400 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2674 | 87% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1535 | 1407 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 37 | 3091 | 90% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1454 | 1475 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 35 | 3051 | 89% | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1450 | 1438 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 37 | 3286 | 96% | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1432 | 1380 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 12 | 815 | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1446 | 1431 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 2 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.17 | 1264 | 1434 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Tunisia | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 365 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 3 | 252 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 47 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 704 | 1 | 1 | 1560 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 52 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gelson Fernandes Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rani Khedira Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vladislav Kulik Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Igor Denisov Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Vieirinha Bundesliga · 2017 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Karol Linetty Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nemanja Maksimovic Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Marco Höger Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2023 | 1.FC Köln | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 29 Jul 2019 | Montpellier | 1.FC Köln | €6.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Montpellier B | Montpellier | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Montpellier U19 | Montpellier B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.