Moussa Niakhaté
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moussa Niakhaté's performance-implied value at EUR 8.9M-19.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.8M-15.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-9.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2758 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €9.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 238% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -76% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2758 | 90% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1457 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2725 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1456 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1457 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1648 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 14 | 1166 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1576 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2567 | 84% | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1517 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2867 | 94% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1529 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1528 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2789 | 91% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1535 | 1488 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 3105 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1468 | 1278 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 739 | 1 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 752 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €8.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Vedran Corluka Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €11.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Vasiliy Berezutski Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €6.5M | €3.8M | fell |
| Leandro Fernández Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €7.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2014 | 29 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Lyon | €31.9M | €16.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Mainz | Nott'm Forest | €13.8M | €18.0M |
| 7 Jul 2018 | FC Metz | Mainz | €6.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valenciennes FC | FC Metz | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Valenciennes B | Valenciennes FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Boulogne U19 | Valenciennes B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Wasquehal U19 | Boulogne U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | LOSC Lille Yth. | Wasquehal U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.