Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giovanni Di Lorenzo's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-7.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2278 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -71% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 26 | 2278 | 67% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1496 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 3 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1495 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3235 | 95% | 1 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1477 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 37 | 3257 | 95% | 3 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1453 | 1739 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 33 | 2873 | 84% | 1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1468 | 1645 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 3 | 7 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1446 | 1643 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 3 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 1431 | 1588 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Empoli | Serie A | RM | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 5 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1466 | 1304 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 561 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 8 | 720 | 1 | 1 | 1626 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1694 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 10 | 890 | 2 | 2 | 1678 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 8 | 720 | 0 | 2 | 1534 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 569 | 0 | 1 | 1539 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 4 | 272 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 8 | 720 | 0 | 2 | 1729 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Hummels Bundesliga · 2022 | 34 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nicolás Tagliafico Ligue 1 · 2024 | 32 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Cristiano Biraghi Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Manuel Pasqual Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Hamari Traoré Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Henri Bedimo Ligue 1 · 2015 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €7.5M | €7.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Empoli | Napoli | €9.8M | €9.0M |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Matera | FC Empoli | €600k | €350k |
| 19 Aug 2015 | Reggio Calabria | Matera | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Cuneo | Reggina | Free / loan | €250k |
| 18 Jul 2012 | Reggina Primaver | Cuneo | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Reggina U17 | Reggina U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Lucchese Gio. | Reggina U17 | €60k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.