Samu

30 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM) · Portugal
Vitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 170 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€795k – €1.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €4.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€843k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€858k – €3.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€795k – €1.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €4.3M
Projected value (24 months)€843k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Samu's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2039 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 45

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2039 (67% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.44
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.40
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1361
Opponent strength
1320
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€843k – €2.0M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 87% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -77% to -54%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalAM29203967%730.440.40132013610.58
2024/25Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalAM31174857%220.210.21130514120.51
2023/24FC VizelaLiga PortugalCM32276990%420.200.24137311990.58
2022/23FC VizelaLiga PortugalAM33270188%340.230.38140312900.68
2021/22FC VizelaLiga PortugalAM30247181%430.250.42137612520.67
2018/19Boavista FCLiga PortugalAM1231%000.000.43132613580.65
2016/17Boavista FCLiga PortugalAM51114%000.000.53139012940.58
2015/16Boavista FCLiga PortugalAM41334%000.000.39132112440.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingVitória Guimarães SC5181001357

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Deniz Türüç
Super Lig · 2023
30€2.7M€1.2Mfell
Özer Hurmaci
Super Lig · 2017
31€1.5M€350kfell
Sander van de Streek
Eredivisie · 2023
30€1.6M€800kfell
Fábio Coentrão
Liga Portugal · 2019
31€2.5M€400kfell
Erdem Sen
Liga Portugal · 2017
28€2.3M€500kfell
Tiago Silva
Liga Portugal · 2023
30€1.5M€3.0Mrose
Pelé
Liga Portugal · 2021
30€2.0M€600kfell
Mitchell Donald
Super Lig · 2019
31€1.3M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024VizelaVit. GuimarãesFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2019BoavistaVizelaFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2018EspinhoBoavistaFree / loan€225k
8 Sept 2017BoavistaEspinhoFree / loan€225k
30 Jun 2017FafeBoavistaFree / loan€225k
1 Jan 2017BoavistaFafeFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2015Boavista Y19BoavistaUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2013Boavista U17Boavista Y19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Boavista U15Boavista U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010FC Porto U15Boavista U15Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009FC Porto YouthFC Porto U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006P. Brandão Fo.FC Porto YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Samu · MoneyballAI