
Samu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samu's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2039 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2039 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €843k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -77% to -54%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | AM | 29 | 2039 | 67% | 7 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 1320 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | AM | 31 | 1748 | 57% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1305 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 2769 | 90% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 1373 | 1199 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | AM | 33 | 2701 | 88% | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 1403 | 1290 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | AM | 30 | 2471 | 81% | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 1376 | 1252 | 0.67 |
| 2018/19 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1326 | 1358 | 0.65 |
| 2016/17 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 5 | 111 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1390 | 1294 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 4 | 133 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1321 | 1244 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 5 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 1357 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €2.7M | €1.2M | fell |
| Özer Hurmaci Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| Sander van de Streek Eredivisie · 2023 | 30 | €1.6M | €800k | fell |
| Fábio Coentrão Liga Portugal · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Erdem Sen Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €2.3M | €500k | fell |
| Tiago Silva Liga Portugal · 2023 | 30 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Pelé Liga Portugal · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vizela | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Boavista | Vizela | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Espinho | Boavista | Free / loan | €225k |
| 8 Sept 2017 | Boavista | Espinho | Free / loan | €225k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Fafe | Boavista | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Boavista | Fafe | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Boavista Y19 | Boavista | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Boavista U17 | Boavista Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Boavista U15 | Boavista U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Porto U15 | Boavista U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | P. Brandão Fo. | FC Porto Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.